CRE Economists Think Current Recession Won’t Be as Bad as the 2008 Crisis

Updated: Jun 8

Angela Morris

Nearly 40 real economists and analysts feel the COVID-19 recession will impact real estate

markets and values less severely than the 2008 financial crisis – except for retail and hotel real estate.

The economists predicted there will be a $275 billion decrease in real estate transaction

volumes in 2020, according to a survey in May of the Urban Land Institute. But they expected

transaction volumes to rise over the next two years, which would create a healthier capital

market compared to the 2008 Great Recession.

“Real estate economists expect that while the top-line economic impact of COVID-19 will be

much worse than the global financial crisis, U.S. real estate market fundamentals and values

will fare much better,” said William Maher, a leading member of the Urban Land Institute, in

prepared remarks. “Only retail and hotel are expected to suffer a worse outcome.”

The institute’s semi-annual survey covered the time period of 2020 through 2022.

The organization reported its findings in the latest Real Estate Economic Forecasts.

The respondents came from 35 leading real estate organizations.

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